Thankfully I’m just an armchair general and don’t actually need to plan this personally for the IDF. Let’s rewind the tape a bit. Hamas shortly after the attack said they’d execute 1 hostage for every civilian area bombed by the IDF. Israel called their bluff, knew they wouldn’t do that because half of Hamas’ strategy is a PR campaign to get the population of the world that doesn’t warfare cause-and-effect to forget they’re holding hostages in the first place. This has worked, seeing as people are tearing down posters of the hostages, but if they killed them on live TV, Western college students might have a harder time sympathizing with them.
Hamas is insane but not completely stupid. And when I say insane, I mean insane. They are maybe the only governing body I’ve heard of to rip out their own water supply and hand water control over to their enemy. Why did they rip out their water supply? Of course to turn into unguided rockets to shoot randomly into towns in the desert to accomplish no military goal. It cannot be overstated that Hamas is one of the craziest governments ever and have dedicated themselves to be Jihadist mole-people.
Sorry for the tangent but point is, I figure, Hamas has the hostages in the deepest parts of the tunnel complex, so deep that a surface nuke wouldn’t kill them. They need them alive for international PR points, or something, it’s hatd to tell with them. The IDF knows their psychology and the layouts better than a Substack Jester hanging out in the States. I’m not saying the IDF is correct in their strategy, especially not morally, I never make moral points in war, but they must know something about the tunnel system where they’re hitting that it isn’t the hostages and are expecting to use special forces to clear the potential hostage areas grid by grid.
If you read this, and care about the hostages, from a cold eyed perspective, I think most of them are going to die. I think the IDF thinks this, but they want to destroy Hamas so badly they accept it. If not for international backlash, in their fury, they probably would bury every tunnel entrance, like we would’ve done in WW2. Or, frankly, any non-Western military would do.
I'd agree with you that most hostages will probably die. It's a pretty cold calculation, but it doesn't make sense to risk the lives of thousands of soldiers to rescue hundreds of hostages. I expect some highly publicized special forces operations to rescue a couple of them, but then, when a special forces operation is made public, it's almost always for political reasons.
I have no idea why I’m so obsessed with this, I’m a noninterventionist who thinks war is hell and is haunted by images of the burned corpses of Dresden, Hamburg and Tokyo as an American even though I wasn’t alive at the time but learning about every single war in human history is something I fixated on probably since I first played Command & Conquer: Red Alert when I was 4.
My husband would very much appreciate your analysis. You are not alone in your stance on war and an obsession with it. My husband was a conscientious objector during Vietnam. He is particularly obsessed with that war and the German side of WWII, but really anything military. He read War and Peace at a very young age and became a Hindu priest at age 18. He left the monastery for reasons I won't go into here, but he is fascinated with human nature. He has obsessively followed military commentary regarding Ukraine and now Israel/Hamas. I have not been able to hear about what he hearing because I am engrossed in the project of getting my Dad with Alzheimer's into assisted living and cleaning out his house. He and our son get to listen to me every night blather on about the intimate details of my father's dementia and experience of moving. I am looking forward to getting home and hearing what he has been learning. I am not a big Ezra Klein fan, but I did listen yesterday to an interview he did with Peter Beinart and Spencer Ackerman that I thought was good. I am more interested in the political side of this and the social maybe even anthropological side of it than the military, but I also don't think you can separate these tracts of study. I have read a couple of books on Israel/Palestine but not nearly enough to feel I understand it - I tend to have more questions than real understanding. And have been listening to Darryl Cooper's Martyrmade podcast which has been helpful.
Unfortunately, they probably don’t. This isn’t being spoken about openly by leaders in Israel for obvious reasons, but if you look at how Israel is operating, they seem to have accepted that the hostages are not going to be rescued alive.
Thanks! My friends tonight I believe thought I was in a deep texting conversation with someone but nope, just living on the Blocked & Reported threads.
Not disagreeing with you, but I’m also curious how they can get hostages out if Hamas has the hostages hidden in tunnels.
Thankfully I’m just an armchair general and don’t actually need to plan this personally for the IDF. Let’s rewind the tape a bit. Hamas shortly after the attack said they’d execute 1 hostage for every civilian area bombed by the IDF. Israel called their bluff, knew they wouldn’t do that because half of Hamas’ strategy is a PR campaign to get the population of the world that doesn’t warfare cause-and-effect to forget they’re holding hostages in the first place. This has worked, seeing as people are tearing down posters of the hostages, but if they killed them on live TV, Western college students might have a harder time sympathizing with them.
Hamas is insane but not completely stupid. And when I say insane, I mean insane. They are maybe the only governing body I’ve heard of to rip out their own water supply and hand water control over to their enemy. Why did they rip out their water supply? Of course to turn into unguided rockets to shoot randomly into towns in the desert to accomplish no military goal. It cannot be overstated that Hamas is one of the craziest governments ever and have dedicated themselves to be Jihadist mole-people.
Sorry for the tangent but point is, I figure, Hamas has the hostages in the deepest parts of the tunnel complex, so deep that a surface nuke wouldn’t kill them. They need them alive for international PR points, or something, it’s hatd to tell with them. The IDF knows their psychology and the layouts better than a Substack Jester hanging out in the States. I’m not saying the IDF is correct in their strategy, especially not morally, I never make moral points in war, but they must know something about the tunnel system where they’re hitting that it isn’t the hostages and are expecting to use special forces to clear the potential hostage areas grid by grid.
If you read this, and care about the hostages, from a cold eyed perspective, I think most of them are going to die. I think the IDF thinks this, but they want to destroy Hamas so badly they accept it. If not for international backlash, in their fury, they probably would bury every tunnel entrance, like we would’ve done in WW2. Or, frankly, any non-Western military would do.
I'd agree with you that most hostages will probably die. It's a pretty cold calculation, but it doesn't make sense to risk the lives of thousands of soldiers to rescue hundreds of hostages. I expect some highly publicized special forces operations to rescue a couple of them, but then, when a special forces operation is made public, it's almost always for political reasons.
The benefit is purely political and probably not to be minimized.
It’s like a saving private Ryan situation.
Wins like that is what infuse the public with the will to persist.
Thanks for explaining. That makes sense.
Frankly, I trust the IDF on this. They know their enemy better than any armchair experts in the west, and they know what is at stake.
I have no idea why I’m so obsessed with this, I’m a noninterventionist who thinks war is hell and is haunted by images of the burned corpses of Dresden, Hamburg and Tokyo as an American even though I wasn’t alive at the time but learning about every single war in human history is something I fixated on probably since I first played Command & Conquer: Red Alert when I was 4.
One problem is, as bad as war is, unilaterally declaring you won't fight one won't actually get you less war necessarily.
My husband would very much appreciate your analysis. You are not alone in your stance on war and an obsession with it. My husband was a conscientious objector during Vietnam. He is particularly obsessed with that war and the German side of WWII, but really anything military. He read War and Peace at a very young age and became a Hindu priest at age 18. He left the monastery for reasons I won't go into here, but he is fascinated with human nature. He has obsessively followed military commentary regarding Ukraine and now Israel/Hamas. I have not been able to hear about what he hearing because I am engrossed in the project of getting my Dad with Alzheimer's into assisted living and cleaning out his house. He and our son get to listen to me every night blather on about the intimate details of my father's dementia and experience of moving. I am looking forward to getting home and hearing what he has been learning. I am not a big Ezra Klein fan, but I did listen yesterday to an interview he did with Peter Beinart and Spencer Ackerman that I thought was good. I am more interested in the political side of this and the social maybe even anthropological side of it than the military, but I also don't think you can separate these tracts of study. I have read a couple of books on Israel/Palestine but not nearly enough to feel I understand it - I tend to have more questions than real understanding. And have been listening to Darryl Cooper's Martyrmade podcast which has been helpful.
Unfortunately, they probably don’t. This isn’t being spoken about openly by leaders in Israel for obvious reasons, but if you look at how Israel is operating, they seem to have accepted that the hostages are not going to be rescued alive.
I believe this was intended as a response to Mike’s concerns below. Great analysis Jester.
Thanks! My friends tonight I believe thought I was in a deep texting conversation with someone but nope, just living on the Blocked & Reported threads.